![]() ![]() These modeling decisions have epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions. Yet, the existence of scientific and ethical uncertainty requires modelers to make numerous choices in model development: choices about model scope, equations, parameter values, and output presentation. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global climate change that combine representations of the economic and the climate system have become important tools to support policymakers in their responses to climate change (See Box 1). Scientists broadly agree that there is a divergence between (1) the distribution of the historic responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which mainly lies with past and present generations in industrialized countries in the Global North, and (2) the anticipated exposure and vulnerability to its effects, which is expected to be most severe for future generations in developing countries with low income in the Global South. Ethical uncertainty exists because it is not clear what frameworks we should apply to address the ethical questions raised by climate change, including questions of historic responsibility, distribution of adaptation and mitigation costs, and of future emission allowances. Scientific uncertainty exists because our knowledge about the causes, processes, and consequences of climate change is incomplete. A common distinction is between scientific uncertainty and ethical uncertainty. #POLIT AND BECK 2005 APPRAISAL TOOL HOW TO#Uncertainty is omnipresent in all policy decisions regarding whether, when, and how to respond to climate change. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Assessment Modeling.This leads us to suggest theoretical frameworks that may enable an integrated epistemic–ethical–political understanding of IAMs and increase transparency about all three dimensions of model uncertainties. We review findings from various literatures to unpack the complex intersection of science, ethics, and politics that IAMs are developed and used in. Third, climate-economic models are not produced and used in a political vacuum they shape and are shaped by the social relations they are embedded in. For other modeling choices, the ethical assumptions and implications are more subtle. Second, modeling choices have ethical implications, for example, the choice of a social discount rate, which is well documented. First, modeling choices determine how well our current (lack of) knowledge about the elements and processes of the modeled system is represented. These modeling choices have epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions. Yet, IAMs are built in the face of pervasive uncertainty, both scientific and ethical, which requires modelers to make numerous choices in model development. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global climate change that combine representations of the economic and the climate system have become important tools to support policymakers in their responses to climate change. ![]()
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